The Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards have historically been a strong predictor for the Academy Awards, especially in acting categories. This trend reflects a significant overlap between the two awarding bodies, with many SAG voters also being members of the Academy. The alignment between SAG winners and Oscar winners has been notably strong, but not absolute, allowing for some surprises during the Oscars.
In the past, there have been years where all SAG Award winners in the acting categories also secured Oscars, showcasing a high level of agreement between the two. For example, in 2022, all four actors who won Oscars—Will Smith and Jessica Chastain in lead categories, and Troy Kotsur and Ariana DeBose in supporting roles—had previously won in the same categories at the SAG Awards. This pattern of alignment underscores the SAG Awards’ potential to serve as an indicator for Oscar outcomes.
However, the 2023 award season appears to diverge from this pattern, particularly in the Best Actor category. While Brendan Fraser won the SAG Award for his lead performance in “The Whale,” the competition for the Oscar is fierce, with Austin Butler (for “Elvis”) and Colin Farrell (for “The Banshees of Inisherin”) being strong contenders as well. This year’s race is more unpredictable compared to previous years, where the SAG winners more clearly foreshadowed the Oscar recipients.
Historically, there has been a high rate of agreement between SAG winners and Oscar winners. Since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1995, there have been nine instances where all four SAG winners went on to win Oscars. The alignment was slightly lower in other years, with three of the four SAG winners going on to win Oscars 11 times. The overall trend demonstrates a significant, though not perfect, predictor relationship between SAG Award victories and subsequent Oscar wins.
Notably, the agreement rate between the SAG Awards and Oscars has increased over time. In the first 14 years of the SAG Awards, there were only two instances of complete alignment across all four acting categories. In contrast, in the following 14 years, there were seven instances of complete alignment, indicating a growing consistency between the two award ceremonies’ outcomes.
Exceptions to this trend include unique circumstances such as posthumous awards and category discrepancies. For example, Heath Ledger won both the SAG and Oscar posthumously for “The Dark Knight,” while Benicio Del Toro and Kate Winslet won awards at both ceremonies but in different categories.
The unpredictability of this year’s Best Actor category at the Oscars, despite the SAG Awards outcome, highlights the dynamic nature of award season and the potential for surprises. While the SAG Awards offer valuable insights into industry preferences, the Oscars retain their capacity for unpredictability, making each award season unique and exciting.
Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees:
- “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- “American Fiction” (MGM)
- “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
Prediction:
Will Win: “Barbie”
Could Win: “Oppenheimer”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Air”
Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
- Paul Giamatti as Paul Hunham in “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
- Cillian Murphy as J. Robert Oppenheimer in “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- Jeffrey Wright as Thelonious “Monk” Ellison in “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Bradley Cooper as Leonard Bernstein in “Maestro” (Netflix)
- Colman Domingo as Bayard Rustin in “Rustin” (Netflix)
Prediction:
Will Win: Paul Giamatti
Could Win: Cillian Murphy
Should Have Been Nominated: Andrew Scott in “All of Us Strangers”
Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
- Emma Stone as Bella Baxter in “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Lily Gladstone as Mollie Kyle in “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Margot Robbie as Barbie in “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Annette Bening as Diana Nyad in “Nyad” (Netflix)
- Carey Mulligan as Felicia Montealegre in “Maestro” (Netflix)
Prediction:
Will Win: Emma Stone
Could Win: Lily Gladstone
Should Have Been Nominated: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor in “Origin”
Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
- Robert Downey Jr. as Lewis Strauss in “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- Ryan Gosling as Ken in “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Sterling K. Brown as Cliff in “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Willem Dafoe as Dr. Godwin Baxter in “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Robert De Niro as William King Hale in “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Prediction:
Will Win: Robert Downey Jr.
Could Win: Ryan Gosling
Should Have Been Nominated: John Magaro in “Past Lives”
Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph as Mary Lamb in “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
- Emily Blunt as Katherine “Kitty” Oppenheimer in “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- Danielle Brooks as Sofia in “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Jodie Foster as Bonnie in “Nyad” (Netflix)
- Penélope Cruz as Laura Ferrari in “Ferrari” (Neon)
Prediction:
Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Could Win: Emily Blunt
Should Have Been Nominated: Laurie Metcalf in “Somewhere in Queens”
Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Nominees:
- “John Wick: Chapter 4” (Lionsgate)
- “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)
- “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)
- “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Prediction:
Will Win: “John Wick: Chapter 4”
Could Win: “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Blue Beetle”
This year’s SAG Awards are poised to celebrate a diverse range of talents and stories that have defined the cinematic landscape. From the enchanting ensemble of “Barbie” to the dramatic depths explored in “Oppenheimer,” each category reflects the dynamic range and emotional impact of this year’s film offerings. As we anticipate the outcomes, these predictions highlight the exceptional skill and creativity that continue to drive the film industry forward.
SAG Awards 2024: A Comprehensive Look at the TV Categories
The Screen Actors Guild Awards, known for spotlighting the year’s top performances in television and film, are upon us. With the film categories already making waves, the TV section is no less competitive, showcasing a blend of new entrants and established favorites. Let’s delve into the predictions and potential surprises across various television categories.
Cast Ensemble in a Drama Series
Nominees:
- “Succession” (Max)
- “The Last of Us” (Max)
- “The Crown” (Netflix)
- “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
- “The Gilded Age” (Max)
Prediction:
Will Win: “Succession”
Could Win: “The Last of Us”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Yellowjackets”
Cast Ensemble in a Comedy Series
Nominees:
- “The Bear” (FX)
- “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
- “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
- “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
- “Barry” (Max)
Prediction:
Will Win: “The Bear”
Could Win: “Abbott Elementary”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Shrinking”
Male Actor in a Drama Series
Nominees:
- Kieran Culkin as Roman Roy, “Succession” (Max)
- Pedro Pascal as Joel, “The Last of Us” (Max)
- Matthew Macfadyen as Tom Wambsgans, “Succession” (Max)
- Brian Cox as Logan Roy, “Succession” (Max)
- Billy Crudup as Cory Ellison, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Prediction:
Will Win: Kieran Culkin
Could Win: Pedro Pascal
Should Have Been Nominated: Jeremy Strong
Male Actor in a Comedy Series
Nominees:
- Jeremy Allen White as Carmen Berzatto, “The Bear” (FX)
- Jason Sudeikis as Ted Lasso, “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
- Bill Hader as Barry Berkman, “Barry” (Max)
- Ebon Moss-Bachrach as Richard “Richie” Jerimovich, “The Bear” (FX)
- Brett Goldstein as Roy Kent, “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
Prediction:
Will Win: Jeremy Allen White
Could Win: Jason Sudeikis
Should Have Been Nominated: James Marsden, “Jury Duty”
Female Actor in a Drama Series
Nominees:
- Sarah Snook as Siobhan “Shiv” Roy, “Succession” (Max)
- Bella Ramsey as Ellie, “The Last of Us” (Max)
- Jennifer Aniston as Alexandra Levy, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
- Elizabeth Debicki as Princess Diana, “The Crown” (Netflix)
- Keri Russell as Kate Wyler, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Prediction:
Will Win: Sarah Snook
Could Win: Bella Ramsey
Should Have Been Nominated: Sophie Nélisse, “Yellowjackets”
Female Actor in a Comedy Series
Nominees:
- Ayo Edebiri as Sydney Adamu, “The Bear” (FX)
- Quinta Brunson as Janine Teagues, “Abbott Elementary” (FX)
- Rachel Brosnahan as Miriam “Midge” Maisel, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video)
- Hannah Waddingham as Rebecca Welton, “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
- Alex Borstein as Susie Myerson, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video)
Prediction:
Will Win: Ayo Edebiri
Could Win: Quinta Brunson
Should Have Been Nominated: Selena Gomez, “Only Murders in the Building”
Stunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama Series
Nominees:
- “Ahsoka” (Disney+)
- “The Last of Us” (Max)
- “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
- “Beef” (Netflix)
- “Barry” (HBO)
Prediction:
Will Win: “Ahsoka”
Could Win: “The Last of Us”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Gen V”
These predictions reflect the trends and performances that have resonated most with the guild members. Each category showcases the incredible talent and creativity present in today’s television landscape, making this year’s SAG Awards a celebration of the best in storytelling and performance.
